Observation
The Hot Water Heaters campaign performed within target in June and July, then deteriorated sharply in August. Several keyword, destination, and budget changes overlapped the decline, preventing a reliable claim that any one edit caused it.
Supporting Data
Full-period campaign performance was $2,066.38 spent, 12 conversion credits, and $172.20 per credit. At least 114 material configuration changes were recorded across the deterioration window and immediate response: 90 phrase keyword pauses, 20 destination changes, and four budget changes. The September 1 budget reduction followed the August decline and cannot have caused it.
The Hot Water Heater ad group generated 1,302 impressions, 30 clicks, $1,184.47 spend, six credits, and $197.41 per credit. Tankless recorded $478.92, four credits, and $119.73 per credit.
Hot Water Heaters lost 52.02% of impression share to rank and 0.44% to budget. More budget was not the obvious remedy.
Action
Classify visible demand first. If replacement-and-installation traffic has sufficient separable exposure, add one replacement-and-installation responsive Search ad challenger in the dominant Hot Water Heater ad group.
Full test controls and decision rule
- Classify visible demand into repair, replacement, installation, Tankless, manufacturer service, pricing, retail, and unclear intent.
- Keep the existing advertisement eligible and use the same landing page.
- Hold budget, bidding, keywords, negatives, schedule, conversion goals, geography, and Tankless fixed.
- Treat the comparison as directional because volume is sparse.
- If exposure cannot support a useful comparison, document a staged rollout or defer the test.
- Retain only when mature cost and available lead-quality evidence improve. Otherwise revert, extend unchanged, or defer.
The July 29 destination change, the page, and the small retail-search issue are not presented as the cause of the August decline.
PRIORITY
Priority 1 of 6. Recover the previously productive campaign with one controlled, directional test.